Poll: 12-term incumbent Kanjorski trails Barletta 44% to 35% (Scranton Times)

“I was surprised,” said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall and overseer of the poll. “I didn’t think it (the margin) would be that large.”

Campaigns react

Ed Mitchell, Mr. Kanjorski’s campaign spokesman, questioned the poll’s validity, claiming the sample of voters contained too many senior citizens — 39 percent instead of the traditional 25 percent.

“We are confident that voters will choose Paul Kanjorski, who has a record of standing up for working people in Northeastern Pennsylvania, instead of Lou Barletta, who sides with George Bush’s policies that have driven our economy into the ground,” Mr. Mitchell said in a statement.

While admitting the percentage of senior citizens sampled was high, Dr. Madonna said that would likely favor Mr. Kanjorski, who is well-known.

“I have a saying: if you attack the independent polls, it’s usually a bad sign for your campaign,” he said.

Mr. Barletta said the poll confirmed his campaign’s polling.

“The poll validates the support I’ve seen throughout the district, but the only poll that matters is Election Day. I’m happy where we are right now,” he said.

The poll was conducted between Sept. 9 and Sept. 14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, meaning actual public opinion could be within a range of 4.2 points higher or lower than the poll’s finding.

Kanjorski dissatisfaction

Perhaps more distressing for Mr. Kanjorski is a finding that only 35 percent of voters said he deserves re-election, while 54 percent said it’s time for a change.

“Only 35 percent say he deserves re-election? ... That’s a dangerously low percentage,” Dr. Madonna said.

Political scientist Christopher Borick, Ph.D., said re-election figures so low generally indicate major dissatisfaction, especially for an incumbent.

“It means all kinds of trouble,” said Dr. Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “These are pretty daunting numbers.”

Mr. Barletta also is viewed more favorably, with 49 percent saying they have a somewhat or strongly favorable opinion of him and only 22 percent having a somewhat or strongly unfavorable view.

By comparison, Mr. Kanjorski’s favorability rating is 40 percent and unfavorability rating is 48 percent.

Barletta redefines issues

The poll also shows Mr. Barletta seems to be altering the local political landscape in a way that contrasts sharply with the presidential race.

In the presidential race, 54 percent of voters named the economy, personal finances or the cost of living as the top issue they’ll consider when deciding whom to support. Health care and insurance (11 percent) and gasoline/oil prices and energy (10 percent) ranked second and third.

In the congressional race, the economic category was still tops, named by 21 percent. But concerns about government and politicians ranked second (19 percent) and illegal immigration came in a close third (17 percent). No other issue tallied more than 5 percent.

Voters are clearly crediting Mr. Barletta for his fight against illegal immigration by naming the issue so frequently, Dr. Madonna said. The issue hasn’t ranked so high in any national or state poll, he said.

At the same time, the large percentage of voters concerned about government and politicians likely indicates voter unhappiness with Mr. Kanjorski for earmarking more than $9 million in federal money that wound up with a company owned and operated by his nephews and daughter, Dr. Madonna said. The company went bankrupt.

“Paul Kanjorski has come to exemplify everything that’s wrong with Washington and these numbers reflect the voters’ frustration,” said Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “This is a toxic environment for any member of Congress who engages in seemingly corrupt behavior.”

An FBI investigation of the earmark found no basis for criminal charges against the congressman.

Kanjorski in doubt

With such an apparently uphill climb to return to Washington for a 13th term, Mr. Kanjorski’s path to re-election is unclear.

The congressman has the advantages of a slumping economy and voter dissatisfaction with Republicans. The poll showed only 20 percent of voters rated the president’s performance as good or excellent and 76 percent said the country is on the wrong track.

But political observers have predicted turbulence for the congressman since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing television commercials in mid-July attacking Mr. Barletta as a pawn of the president. Mr. Kanjorski began airing commercials a month earlier.

“Kanjorski is alone in being one of the endangered (Democratic) longtime members of Congress,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based political newsletter that is rating the race a “tossup.”

Dr. Borick said Mr. Kanjorski will struggle to rally.

“There are not a lot of people who don’t have an opinion on Paul Kanjorski,” Dr. Borick said. “It’s not like he’s new on the scene and he can all of a sudden change what people are thinking of him. It’s harder to readjust perceptions for a longtime incumbent than it is for a candidate less defined for the public.”

Party poll differs

Responding to the poll, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its own poll, which showed Mr. Kanjorski leading 48 percent to 39 percent, with the rest undecided. The poll, conducted Sunday and Monday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, committee spokeswoman Carrie James said.

For months, the committee had refused to release any poll results.

Ms. James said the DCCC’s release of the poll on Tuesday was a coincidence. She declined to release the poll’s methodology or any further results, claiming that could give away potential campaign strategy.

“With a struggling economy and retirement savings for so many at risk, Pennsylvanians certainly aren’t going to trust their future with Lou Barletta and his dangerous George Bush Social Security privatization scheme,” she said in a statement.

Dr. Madonna said he couldn’t comment on the DCCC poll without further details, but pollsters generally warn people to be suspicious of polls whose scientific process and details remain a secret.

Poll Methodology

The Franklin & Marshall College/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll surveyed 547 registered voters between Sept. 9 and Sept. 14. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, meaning actual public opinion could be within a range of 4.2 points higher or lower than the poll’s findings.

The poll used a voter-registration-based sampling method. This method, instead of relying on random dialing of the pool of all telephone numbers, reduces the pool of sampled voters based on voter registration lists.

In this case, registration lists from within the 11th Congressional District were used and screened based on past voting history and voter turnout in prior elections.

Times-Shamrock Newspapers were among several media outlets across the state that co-sponsored the poll.