By Louis Jacobson

In the battle for the U.S. House in 2010, there may be no state as decisive as Pennsylvania.

According to the House race ratings by handicapper Charlie Cook, 10 out of Pennsylvania’s 19 House districts are in play this fall. That’s more seats than any other state, and more than any other big state on a percentage basis.

In addition, of those 10 seats, Cook considers seven “toss-up,” “lean Democratic” or “lean Republican” –  the most competitive categories. That’s also the most of any single state, both on an absolute and a percentage basis.

This is why we’re starting a new feature at PoliticsPA: a monthly ranking of the most vulnerable U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania.

In our rankings, the seats are numbered in descending order by the likelihood of a party switch.

We’re kicking off the rankings this month with 11 lawmakers; we’re considering the other eight seats safe, though that could change if circumstances shift.

The Democrats have the most at risk. Of the 11 seats we’re focusing on, seven are currently held by Democrats and another one is the vacant seat previously occupied by the late Rep. John Murtha (D). And with the national climate leaning against the Democrats, at least for now, the Keystone State could prove pivotal, as it has in several recent election cycles.

“Once again, Pennsylvania is one of the hot spots for congressional races,” said Nathan Gonzales, who handicaps races for the Rothenberg Political Report. “It’s very difficult to see Republicans getting back to the majority without doing very well in Pennsylvania.”

One caveat: It’s still early for Congressional races, and the outcomes of the May 18 primary could dramatically alter the contours of each contest listed here. These rankings give a general idea of where each race stands, but they are subject to significant change through the year.

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2. Paul Kanjorski, (D-11). Kanjorski, who represents Scranton and portions of northeastern Pennsylvania, is an influential lawmaker in Washington – a 13-term incumbent who ranks second in seniority on the House Financial Services Committee. However, running as a longtime Washington politician who helped oversee Wall Street before the 2008 collapse isn’t the best resume these days. It doesn’t help that Kanjorski has attracted unflattering headlines over past earmarks. Now, he’s facing both a competitive primary, from Lackawanna County commissioner Corey O’Brien, and a competitive general from two-time rival Lou Barletta. Kanjorski is favored to win the primary, and the district favored Obama by 15 points in 2008, but Barletta – a Hazelton mayor who became famous nationally as a critic of illegal immigration – may have the right populist vibe for year with an angry electorate. Barletta, however, must first defeat Republican Chris Paige in the primary, with the former pollster seemingly hell-bent on reminding voters the mayor supported a tax hike in Hazleton late last year.

http://www.politicspa.com/politicspas-house-race-rankings/7386/